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Tightest title race in years

Tightest title race in years

Jurgen Klopp
Jurgen Klopp watched his team fight back from a goal down to beat Luton 4-1 on Wednesday

It is set to be the tightest Premier League title race in years.

City and Arsenal both play their games in hand on Saturday, with City at Bournemouth and the Gunners at home to Newcastle.

Current table

Premier League table as of 21 February
TeamPlayedPointsGDForm (last 5 games)
1. Liverpool266038WLWWW
2. Man City255632WWWDW
3. Arsenal255536WWWWW

What are the remaining fixtures?

LiverpoolManchester CityArsenal
FebruaryBournemouth (A)Newcastle (H)
MarchNottingham Forest (A)Manchester United (H)Sheffield United (A)
Manchester City (H)Liverpool (A)Brentford (H)
Everton (A)Brighton (A)Chelsea (H)
Brighton (H)Arsenal (H)Manchester City (A)
AprilSheffield United (H)Aston Villa (H)Luton (H)
Manchester United (A)Crystal Palace (A)Brighton (A)
Crystal Palace (H)Luton (H)Aston Villa (H)
Fulham (A)Tottenham (A)Wolves (A)
West Ham (A)Nottingham Forest (A)Tottenham (A)
MayTottenham (H)Wolves (H)Bournemouth (H)
Aston Villa (A)Fulham (A)Manchester United (A)
Wolves (H)West Ham (H)Everton (H)

Guardiola’s team arguably have the most difficult run of fixtures in the coming weeks. After travelling to Bournemouth on Saturday, City welcome bitter rivals Manchester United to Etihad Stadium before a highly anticipated trip to Anfield in their next league game.

Arsenal trail City by a point but are currently the league’s form team, having begun a calendar year with five successive wins for the first time in their history.

They visit Manchester City on the final day of March – just over two weeks after welcoming Chelsea to Emirates Stadium.

As for Liverpool, the loss in north London on 4 February remains their only league defeat in their past 19 games. Jurgen Klopp’s team host City on 10 March before travelling to Goodison Park for the Merseyside derby a week later.

What do the prediction models suggest?

Predicted Premier League final table – Opta
TeamPredicted points% chance of winning titleCurrent position & points
1. Man City85462nd – 56 points
2. Liverpool83411st – 60 points
3. Arsenal80133rd – 55 points

Opta’s ‘supercomputer’ prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and their own Opta team rankings – based on historical and recent team performances. These are simulated thousands of times to create the probabilities.

Predicted Premier League final table – Nielsen’s Gracenote
TeamPredicted points% chance of winning titleCurrent position & points
1. Liverpool85441st – 60 points
2. Man City85422nd – 56 points
3. Arsenal81143rd – 55 points

The predictions by data experts Nielsen’s Gracenote are also based on match simulations run thousands of times, using their Euro Club Index which ranks teams from across the continent. While these predictions have Liverpool and City finishing on the same number of points at the end of the season, Jurgen Klopp’s side are slightly favoured because of the fixture schedule.

Whatever happens, there are certain to be plenty of twists and turns between now and the final day of the campaign on 19 May.

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