Man City vs Arsenal prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for FA Cup fourth round
While Arsenal and Manchester City battle for the Premier League title, their jockeying extends to the domestic knockout competitions as the two teams clash at the Etihad Stadium in the fourth round of the FA Cup.
The Gunners hold a five-point advantage atop the league table plus a game in hand, and while Man City are far from out of it, the Citizens will hope to snatch a result in another competition knowing they may not have the ability to catch their opponents in league play.
It will be fascinating to see which manager deploys a first-choice lineup knowing there are still many competitions to contest. The Premier League title race is clearly the top priority, and both sides are still alive in European competition as well, with Man City preparing for a Champions League Round of 16 tie against RB Leipzig and Arsenal awaiting their Europa League Round of 16 assignment.
Both teams suffered early exits from the Carabao Cup, so one major Premier League contender will end up dumped from both domestic tournaments earlier than expected at the conclusion of this match (assuming we don’t go to a replay).
Man City vs Arsenal odds
Arsenal may be leading the Premier League table, but Man City remain the favorites at home in this match by a considerable margin. Some of that may be down to the respective situations for either team: Arsenal are pushing for the Premier League title and may consider the FA Cup a distraction, and while Man City are certainly in the hunt for the league, they are out of the Carabao Cup and may place a higher importance on this match.
Additionally, Man City’s advantage on the odds here reflects the story throughout the Premier League this season. Arsenal have held a lead atop the league table for months but have only just recently taken over as favorites to win the title, as bettors continue to back Man City on multiple fronts even despite their deficit on points.
|Man City win||-135||-115||7/10||1.73|
to score Y / N
|-160 / +110||-167 / +106||8/13, 6/5||1.57 / 2.25|
|Over / Under|
|-160 / +115||-154 / +115||8/13, 6/5||1.60 / 2.20|
|Man City -0.5||-145||-133||—||—|
Man City vs Arsenal: 3 things to know
Man City vs Arsenal match facts
- Date: Friday, January 27
- Kickoff Time: 3:00 p.m. ET / 8:00 p.m. GMT / 7:00 a.m. AEDT (Sat, Jan. 28)
- Location: The Etihad Stadium (Manchester, England)
- Official: Paul Tierney
Man City vs Arsenal team news
City boss Pep Guardiola has very little to worry about, instead afforded a near fully fit squad for this match. The only concern lies with Phil Foden who has picked up a foot issue, which forced him out of last weekend’s Premier League win over Wolves. Stefan Ortega will likely continue to serve as Cup goalkeeper with Ederson set for a night off, while Kyle Walker and Bernardo Silva should return after being rested on the bench against Wolves.
Arsenal are also quite healthy as they push for titles on multiple fronts. A knee issue for reserve midfielder Mohamed Elneny harms the Gunners’ depth and could force a regular starter into action, a problem that boss Mikel Arteta has admitted could see them dip into the transfer market. Gabriel Jesus continues his absence, while Reiss Nelson and Cedric Soares are the other absentees due to muscle issues, with the latter also expected to join Fulham soon. American goalkeeper Matt Turner will likely take over in net as he continues his role in cup action to give Aaron Ramsdale a rest.
Man City vs Arsenal key stats
- Arsenal topped Man City 2-0 in their last FA Cup match back in 2020, but City have won all five meetings since, including four in Premier League play and one in the Carabao Cup.
- A Man City defeat would see the club out of both domestic cup competitions the earliest since the 2014/15 season when they were also eliminated from both tournaments in the fourth round.
- Martin Odegaard of Arsenal has collected 4.39 xA (expected assists) in Premier League play this season, fourth in the league. Odegaard’s 5.49 xG (expected goals) is the most of anyone in the top 10 chance creators, detailing his dual-threat nature. Teammates Bukayo Saka (6.08 xG and 3.08 xA) and Gabriel Martinelli (4.31 xG and 4.21 xA) also sport similar profiles.
Man City vs Arsenal prediction
- Moneyline lean: Arsenal (+333)
- Against the spread lean: Arsenal -0.5 (+105)
- Score prediction: Man City 1-2 Arsenal
This is an incredibly difficult one. It’s tough to keep a Pep Guardiola side down for long, especially at home, and this Man City team feels like they could be out for revenge knowing they’ve been beaten back in the league title race. Additionally, City have had Arsenal’s number head-to-head a few times recently, including a 2-1 result their last time out in Premier League play on New Year’s Day 2022 that saw Bernardo Silva snatch Man City a deserved win late.
Yet the way the odds are currently, there’s simply too much value taking Arsenal on 3/1 odds to win, or even at plus odds on double chance. It’s easy to envision a Man City win in this match in front of the home fans, but on current form, it feels more like a coin flip, and in that case, the odds heavily favor the Gunners.
Man City vs Arsenal: best bet
- Pick: Highest scoring half — 2H
- Odds: -105 (BetMGM)
While the second half is usually the higher scoring 45 minutes, it’s especially true in this matchup. Both Arsenal and Man City have been sharper after the break, and it will prove true again.
Man City especially have had a brutal time breaking down opponents early, as 13 of their past 20 goals across all competitions have come after the break. Meanwhile, Arsenal have picked up multiple second-half goals in three of their past five Premier League games.
Additionally, both teams have been poor finishing in the first half, only to get better in front of net after the break. Man City and Arsenal both feature a negative differential between expected goals and expected goals on target in the first half, but they are both positive in the second half. Man City have accumulated 23 Premier League goals in the first half on 20.23 xG and 17.81 xGOT, but after the break explode for 30 goals on 21.91 xG and 23.50 xGOT. Arsenal profile the same, with 19 goals on 16.98 xG and 14.58 xGOT before halftime before grabbing 26 goals on 21.43 xG and 22.09 xGOT after the break.
Man City vs Arsenal: Prop bet
- Pick: Bukayo Saka 1+ shots on target
- Odds: +105 (FanDuel)
Bukayo Saka opened the season as one of the highest volume Arsenal attackers, but as Gabriel Jesus gained a foothold in the Gunners’ forward line, he faded and transitioned to a more creative role. Since Jesus picked up an injury at the World Cup, Saka has re-emerged as a main attacking threat up front for Arsenal.
Saka isn’t firing away at a necessarily high level, but he’s picking his spots well, and as a result has grabbed at least one shot on target in four of their past five Premier League games. Saka should remain a threat to have a go, and could have a field day against Joao Cancelo.
Man City vs Arsenal live stream, TV channel
|UK||ITV1||ITVX, STV Player|
|New Zealand||Sky Sports 7 beIN Sports||beIN Sports Connect|
|Hong Kong||myTV Super||m Plus Live|
|Malaysia||Astro SuperSport 4||Astro Go, sooka|